Washington: A flare-up in tensions between the UN nuclear monitor and Iran this week has left US President Joe Biden in an increasingly tight jam.
The US leader opened his presidency with a pledge to return to the 2015 international agreement that aimed to prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons, after predecessor Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it.
Negotiations to restore that agreement have been at an impasse for three months over the very last details.
Without a deal — and Iran ever closer to nuclear “breakout” — Biden has a tough choice: to make more concessions to Tehran, and be accused of weakness by Republican opponents ahead of midterm elections, or declare the talks dead, which could spark a new Middle East crisis.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Thursday that Tehran s removal this week of 27 cameras monitoring its nuclear sites could deal a “fatal blow” to negotiations.
“At this stage, things can go either way,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “The tension of the past few days could potentially stir leadership in Tehran and Washington to take the deal that is on the table.”
Or, he said, “It s the first step in another cycle of escalation, and from this point on it would only get worse.”
“Worse” could mean Tehran moving ahead to build a nuclear weapon, and its opponents like Israel and US hardliners demanding hard action to prevent that.
– Verge of a deal –
The talks in Vienna between Iran and the major powers resumed last year at Biden s impetus, with the US willing to rescind sanctions in exchange for Tehran returning to full implementation of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
But at the edge of a deal three months ago, the talks stalled, due — according to US officials — to final demands by Iran unrelated to nuclear issues.
Meanwhile, officials say, Iran has pushed ahead with uranium enrichment operations that take it close to a weapons capability.
The situation deteriorated this week when members of the IAEA censured Iran for not cooperating. A day later Iran removed the 27 cameras.
– Call for maximum pressure –
Supporters say the deal is the only thing that has prevented Iran from building nuclear weapons, and that saving it is worth Biden giving Tehran some concessions.
But opponents — Republicans, and strong supporters of Iran s nemesis Israel — say Iran s lack of cooperation shows the agreement is not worth pursuing.
If Tehran s accelerated uranium enrichment operations “are not sufficient to get the Biden administration to change course, what will?” asked Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank, which has opposed the JCPOA.
“The time has come for a multilateral version of maximum pressure,” he said, referring to Trump s approach. AFP
