By Ray White
Today the world is a standing at a cross-roads similar to the one in 1938 just before the beginning of Second World War. The fascist ideology broke its boundaries and started the Second World War. Nobody was prepared for it and it came suddenly. The war continued for six years and about 100 million people were killed in the war.
Today we are standing at the brink of third world war. Some analysts say that the third world war has already begun. Analysing the situation under geopolitical intelligence we can safely say that the world is at the crossroads of a disastrous war in the shape of a pandemic like COVID-19. Nearly two million people have died in this pandemic and no respite is in sight. The upcoming year 2021 is very dangerous and very unpredictable. In America alone they will be 10 million people who would not know whether they would have enough food to survive the next week. All governments of the world have entered a confrontational stage with their respective citizens – may it be because of lockdowns or because of an economic collapse or because introduction of a vaccine. A civil war is in sight in USA. Record Number of arms and ammunition have been sold in America during this pandemic. Fresh buyers of arms in America are now being given a delivery date of three months before they could buy the desired weapons. The world has entered the third world war.
Financial catastrophe
Severe reduction in funds has been registered due to deepening of global economic recession and severe financial crisis. Most super powers have increased security-related spending thus increasing the threat of war all over the world. These funds could have been used to implement peace
Super Powers conflict of interest
U.S.-China rivalry encourages other states to jump on the bandwagon, disturbing the balance of power. Rivalries between regional powers are likely to lead to more armed conflicts.
Character of warfare
Great power wars mix hi-tech and “grey zone” techniques. War in weak states persists but often blurs with organized crime, atrocities and state repression.
We face a crisis of unprecedented scope and indeed complexity due to COVID-19. Across the world it has triggered health, humanitarian, economic and security challenges, with ramifications that are both immediate and indeed long-term. These challenges are interwoven. They require a coordinated and collaborative response. Places such as Yemen, Libya and the Central African Republic, fragmented government authority severely restricting local capacity to respond effectively to the spread of this pandemic. We need to act smartly to prevent new peace and security crisis.
Three actions are recommended:
Firstly, UN responses must be more sensitive to conflict risk and build this into strategic planning, prioritisation and financing.
Secondly, a joint risk assessment and planning should be conducted between all major international financial institutions to combine macro-economic, social and political considerations.
And thirdly, we must focus to strengthen a country’s resilience to shocks. Strong, inclusive and accountable institutions, the rule of law, good governance and human rights are the fundamental basis of such a resilience.
We need to make coordinated efforts to plan and build a better and safe world for humanity.
