Qaisar Mansoor
Clear challenges for the US-India bilateral lay ahead over military, economic and climate matters, tensions over democracy and human rights could flare up any movement.
Over the years, Indian establishment made US and allies believe that India is not only a counter-weight to China but also a staunch US strategic partner on the international stage. However, where US needed India the most, India took stance that would ultimately harm US interests. India is trying to sail on two boats, deeming it as a smart policy, but on contrary India is exposing itself. United States is slowly realizing that India is merely a paper tiger and it must minimize its expectations from India.
Ukraine Crisis is not an isolated event; there is a consistent pattern in India’s behaviour on the international geopolitical chessboard, be it the climate change crisis or defense procurements from Russia. It is a high time for the West to accept the reality that it is putting bet on wrong horse (India). India is trying to play on both sides of the pitch by assuring US of its support against China on one side and bolstering its defence ties with US arch-rival, Russia. Ukraine crisis is not the only sign of the new limits of US-India convergence. India duplicity is also being noticed in the Western capitals. United States has started realizing that India is an unreliable partner on the geopolitical chessboard.
When Washington, Canberra and London announced the formation of explicitly military pact AUKUS, India was kept at an arm’s length. But when the chips are down, Washington may discover that India will not only decidedly stay away from its coalition against Russia, but may not even be as hawkish on China as is widely assumed. Another pertinent question is whether India side with US in case of war with China.
The simple answer is no. India military is of no match when it comes to China. In 2021, India announced a military budget of nearly $74 billion, compared with Beijing’s $178 billion. In India’s case, much of that spending is going to pay pensions. India would milk US by doubling down its “China fear” but it would not risk a war with China on the US behalf. Moreover, the rusty Indian army would not dare to fight with modern Chinese People Liberation Army; especially after India’s humiliating defeat in 1962 Sino-India war and in 2020 Doklam border standoff. Indian fake news and its lobby in US continue to misguide US policy makers that they can rely on India in their competition vis-à-vis China on inconsistent rationales. It will cost US heavily if it did not reduce its expectations regarding India.
Any country that does not have justice, rule of law and equal opportunity for all cannot become an economic powerhouse. The West hopes that Indian economic potential would help decouple their economies vis-a-vis China. But Indian Internal disharmony, ever increasing rich-poor gap, religious fault-lines and autocratic policies make India susceptible to economic meltdown that would jeopardize the Western investments. Moreover, unlike China, Indian industry lacks technology, trained labor and conductive environment. Hence, the West is putting its bet on a wrong horse.
