Kiev: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the food inflation that’s been plaguing global consumers is now tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping even the pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger.
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for a whopping portion of the world’s agricultural supplies, exporting so much wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other foods that it adds up to more than a tenth of all calories traded globally. Now, shipments from both countries have virtually dried up.
Commodity markets are soaring — wheat is up about 50% in two weeks and corn just touched a decade high. The surging costs could end up weighing on currencies in emerging markets, where food represents a bigger share of consumer-price baskets. And analysts are predicting export flows will continue to be disrupted for months even if the war were to end tomorrow.
The crisis extends beyond just the impact of grain exports (critical as they are). Russia is also a key supplier for fertilizers. Virtually every major crop in the world depends on inputs like potash and nitrogen, and without a steady stream, farmers will have a harder time growing everything from coffee to rice and soybeans.
Plainly speaking, there are few other places on the planet where a conflict like this could create such a devastating blow to ensuring that food supplies stay plentiful and affordable. It’s why Russia and Ukraine are known as the breadbaskets to the world.
“It’s an amazing food shock,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, an independent market analyst and a former senior economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. “I don’t know of a situation like this in the 30 years I was involved in this sector.”
The timing couldn’t be worse. When the pandemic first hit in 2020, images of lines snaking around food banks and empty grocery shelves shocked the world as nearly a tenth of the global population went hungry. But at the time, food inventories were still abundant. Arab News
