By Michael Kugelman
The highlights this week: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visits New Delhi and Islamabad with vastly different agendas, the Pandora Papers implicate figures across South Asia, and India’s farmers’ protests turn deadly. If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
The U.S.-India-Pakistan Triangle
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is visiting India and Pakistan this week. Her trip underscores the diverging trajectories of U.S. relations with the two countries. The United States and India’s relationship is flush with momentum, although it is not immune to setbacks. Meanwhile, its relationship with Pakistan faces an uncertain future—but it still has potential for cooperation after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
In India, Sherman engaged with officials to discuss a variety of issues, from Afghanistan to Indo-Pacific strategy. She met India’s foreign secretary, foreign minister, and national security advisor, along with civil society and business leaders. Sherman also participated in the India Ideas Summit, hosted by the U.S.-India Business Council.
The future of U.S-India relations seems clear. Shared concern about China binds the two countries together and ensures a prominent role for India in the United States’ Indo-Pacific policy. But for nearly three decades, the two sides have found common ground on everything from democracy and trade to, more recently, health and the climate crisis. That’s why high-level U.S.-India meetings have expansive agendas, including Sherman’s meetings this week.
Despite this momentum, a potential crisis looms. The United States could sanction India for its acquisition of Russian missile-defense technology. It’s very likely the Biden administration will grant India a waiver once the equipment starts arriving. But Sherman offered few assurances during her visit this week, calling India’s acquisition “dangerous and not in anybody’s security interest.”
Sherman arrived in Pakistan on Thursday, becoming one of the first high-level Biden administration officials to visit the country. Her two-day agenda focuses on Afghanistan and counterterrorism, and she will only meet with senior officials.
It wasn’t always this way. Senior U.S. diplomats once branched out during their visits to Pakistan. As the Obama administration sought more cooperation from Islamabad in Afghanistan, it engaged in charm offensives. During visits in 2009 and 2010, then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton participated in town hall meetings, met with students and business executives, and did interviews with journalists. Those visits touched on counterterrorism but also on energy and education.
The United States has long viewed its relationship with Pakistan through the lens of Afghanistan, and the issue will still determine its future after the U.S. withdrawal. Recent conversations with U.S. officials suggest Washington’s position toward the Taliban will considerably shape bilateral ties with Pakistan. If the United States doesn’t recognize the Taliban regime or engage with them, it may look to Pakistan as a key go-between.
The level of support Washington seeks from Islamabad for U.S. counterterrorism objectives will also be influential. If the United States wants intelligence-sharing arrangements and overflight rights from Pakistan, U.S. officials will have to make the relationship work. But if it finds solutions elsewhere—basing agreements in Central Asia or even intelligence support from the Taliban—a partnership will not appear as imperative to Washington.
Nonetheless, the United States and Pakistan have reasons for cooperating in the immediate term. Washington wants Islamabad to help press the Taliban to take more moderate positions on women’s rights and government inclusivity. And both countries need to develop a plan for assisting any Afghan refugees that have fled to Pakistan and seek U.S. special immigration visas because of their previous work with the U.S. military.
Ultimately, it is China that will cast a long shadow over the U.S.-India-Pakistan triangle. Beijing is a close ally of Islamabad and a bitter rival of Washington and New Delhi—ensuring smooth sailing on the U.S.-India side and choppy seas for the United States and Pakistan. In due course, there will likely be a reversion to the status quo in both relationships.
A sanctions waiver will likely avert a serious crisis between the United States and India while the United States and Pakistan may find fewer things to cooperate on as U.S. attention to Afghanistan recedes and Washington focuses more on competition with Beijing. Foreignpolicy.com
